The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been predicting weather since 1792. Using a complex series of natural cycles data, editors have devised a secret weather forecasting formula with 80 percent accuracy. Predictions usually are released at the beginning of the new year. This years’ predictions were released this past February.

According to the Farmer’s Almanac, upcoming winter weather for New Mexico is predicted to be cold and wet for most of the state. Cooler temperatures and above normal precipitation are predicted with one exception: January may be a little warmer than average.

Our federal weather agency is less direct with their predictive claims than the Old Farmer’s Almanac, and states potential weather in probabilistic terms, based upon sea temperatures and modeling. Interestingly, it seems to counter the Almanac.

On October 17, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter weather outlook. Currently, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions (La Nada) remain in effect, while a shift to La Niña conditions is likely through the winter months. What this could mean for us is a greater probability of warmer and drier conditions than usual. This La Niña event is expected to be weak, where the typical effects (warm and dry southwest) will not be as pronounced but may tip the scales in favor of said conditions.

What does all this mean? Sounds like we’ll know better this spring!

On that note, take a look at a review of the 2022-23 NOAA winter forecast and actual results via https://klaq.com/new-mexico-winter-prediction/

Also see KRQE’s discussion of Farmer’s Almanac from August:
https://www.krqe.com/weather/what-can-new-mexico-expect-this-winter-according-to-the-2024-farmers-almanac/

And NOAA’s current winter weather outlook here:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html